Beliefs, not betsThe Only True Prediction Market — Not a Zero-Sum Game
Bayesianmarket
Register your probabilistic beliefs. Update them as evidence arrives. Track your calibration over time. No one loses money — only epistemic credit.
Probabilistic forecasting
Crowd aggregation
Brier-scored accuracy
Open Questions
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Priors and Updates
Every forecast starts as a prior — your best estimate before new evidence. As information arrives, you update. The revision history is public and permanent.
Evidence Layer
Each forecast update can cite evidence: articles, data, arguments. Reasoning is made legible, not hidden behind a single number.
Calibration
After resolution, your Brier scores accumulate. Your profile shows not just accuracy but calibration — whether your 70% really means 70%.